Bitcoin nears 60% market share as traders take on more risk

Traders are putting more money at risk in crypto just as a major U.S. economic test approaches. Bitcoin’s share of the total cryptocurrency market is nearing 60%, while the share held by USDT, the largest stablecoin tied to the dollar, has fallen to about 6.3%. Together, those shifts suggest investors are becoming more comfortable holding tokens rather than cash-like assets, according to CoinDesk (direct).

Bitcoin was trading above $86,000 at 9:10 UTC, a gain of 3.4% over 24 hours. Ether, XRP, solana and BNB also advanced, although each lagged bitcoin. Some smaller tokens moved faster: SKY, AAVE and APT gained between 7% and 10%, putting them at the top of the performance table among the 100 biggest cryptocurrencies by market value.

A rally with more leverage behind it

The rise in bitcoin’s dominance—the proportion of the entire crypto market it represents—comes alongside gains across the wider market. The decline in USDT’s share offers another clue to traders’ positioning. Because the token is pegged to the dollar, its shrinking share suggests a move away from cash-like holdings and toward exposure to crypto prices. It is a sign of greater willingness to take risk, rather than a guarantee that the rally will last.

Trading activity adds another layer to that picture. Open interest, a measure of outstanding derivatives contracts, and funding rates, payments associated with maintaining some leveraged positions, are rising. CoinDesk reported that these signals point to traders building bullish bets using leverage, which magnifies their exposure. At the same time, $344 million in liquidations—positions forcibly closed—highlights the volatility risk surrounding those bets.

Jobs data could change the mood

The immediate challenge is Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET. FactSet’s consensus forecast calls for 90,000 jobs to have been added in September, compared with 162,000 in August. Economists expect unemployment to remain at 4.1%. A result well above expectations could lift Treasury yields, revive expectations of an interest-rate increase and put pressure on bitcoin.

Interest-rate expectations have already shifted in a direction more supportive of risk assets. Markets put the probability of an October rate increase at 30%, down from 70%, following remarks from New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson that signaled a softer stance. Some observers say those odds may change little unless hiring substantially exceeds forecasts.

Oliver Carding, head of marketing at Tesseract Group, which manages $500 million in assets, is focused on how the figures affect longer-dated bond yields. He is also watching the Oct. 14 consumer price index report. His reference point is the 10-year real yield—the return after accounting for inflation—at about 3%.

Carding said a sustained move above roughly 3% in the 10-year real yield would make a bitcoin retest of $80,000–$82,000 more likely than a climb toward $90,000.

For traders, the next test is therefore not simply whether hiring beats forecasts, but how bond markets respond. Friday’s payroll figures, followed by the Oct. 14 inflation report, will provide the next signals on whether the backdrop continues to support the market’s greater appetite for risk.