Bitcoin’s weekly gain survives bond selloff as traders look to October

Bitcoin was holding on to a small weekly gain even as renewed selling in U.S. government bonds pushed it lower on Friday. The contrast captured the challenge for crypto investors: weaker hiring had reduced expectations of another Federal Reserve interest-rate increase, but that relief was not enough to overcome pressure from the bond market. According to Investing.com Commodities, traders were also weighing a proposed regulatory opening and October’s historically strong returns.

Bitcoin traded at $84,501.6 at 17:35 ET, down 0.1% on the day but up 0.5% for the week. The modest advance followed a much stronger stretch: the cryptocurrency had finished the quarter with a 43% gain. Investors were now looking for that recovery to carry into October, a month traders call “uptober” because of its record of gains.

Weak hiring changes the rate calculation

U.S. employers added 29,000 nonfarm jobs last month, well below the 89,000 expected, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics figures cited in the report. It was the slowest monthly increase of the year. Combined employment gains for July and August were revised down by 60,000, while September’s unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1%. The figures pointed to labor-market weakness alongside other indicators suggesting a resilient economy and slightly easing inflation.

Interest-rate expectations shifted after the release. CME’s FedWatch tool put the probability of a quarter-percentage-point October rate increase at nearly 23%, with the chance of unchanged rates around 77%. Higher rates can restrain inflation but also weaken growth and hiring. Lower-rate conditions tend to support speculative assets, including cryptocurrencies, making the jobs report an important counterweight to the pressure elsewhere in financial markets.

The respite in bonds proved brief. Selling paused after the jobs data, then resumed. The two-year Treasury yield—the return available on that government debt—had fallen 3.7 basis points over the week; a basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point. But the 10-year yield rose 9.5 basis points and the 30-year gained 12. The report linked pressure on longer-term bonds to oil-related inflation concerns, corporate borrowing to fund artificial-intelligence infrastructure and expanding fiscal debt.

October hopes meet a regulatory opening

October’s record offered another reason for optimism, though not a guarantee. Bitcoin rose in 10 of the past 15 Octobers, with average gains of 27.4% in positive months and average losses of 13% in negative ones. The report noted that October 2025 turned negative despite an early record high, as U.S. tariff threats and AI-related anxiety drove investors away from crypto. That retreat continued through much of 2026, taking Bitcoin as low as $58,000 before its recovery over the past three months.

Regulation supplied a separate source of support. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission proposed rules on Thursday covering custody—the safeguarding of assets—for cryptocurrencies held by registered investment advisers and regulated funds. The proposal aims to remove barriers to crypto-related advice and allow funds to offer a wider range of strategies. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins argued that regulation had fallen behind the market’s growth.

Atkins said the proposal would give advisers and funds a clear, compliant route for safeguarding crypto assets where one had previously been lacking.

Other digital assets were mixed: Ether fell 1.2% to $2,660.26, while Solana gained 0.3%. The next test for Bitcoin is whether its quarterly rebound can survive renewed bond-market pressure. Investors will be watching October’s Fed decision, the custody proposal and whether seasonal optimism can withstand rising interest rates and persistent U.S.-Iran tensions.