Latvia votes as living costs collide with a defence bill near 5% of GDP

Latvia, the poorest of the three Baltic states, is spending nearly 5% of its gross domestic product — the total value of goods and services produced in its economy — on defence while voters face rising living costs and low wages. That tension is shaping a parliamentary election that opened on Saturday, October 3, with security concerns over Russia sharing the campaign stage with pressure on household budgets, according to Al Jazeera.

About 1.5 million people are eligible to cast ballots in the country’s 11th parliamentary election since it regained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. Voting began at 05:00 GMT and is due to end at 17:00 GMT. The election is not expected to redirect Latvia away from its pro-European and pro-Ukrainian course. The more immediate uncertainty is which parties will be able to put together the next government.

Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs faces his first election since taking office in May. His predecessor resigned following a backlash over stray drone incursions from Ukraine. Kulbergs’ right-wing United List party is polling at roughly 20%, and he is expected to remain prime minister. But declining support for two of his coalition allies means keeping the top job could require difficult negotiations over who governs alongside him.

Household budgets meet security priorities

Rising prices are only part of the domestic strain. Low pay, pressure on healthcare and a long-running decline in the population have also been prominent campaign issues. Alongside those concerns, Latvia has sharply raised defence spending since Russia invaded Ukraine. Voters are therefore choosing a parliament against a backdrop of both economic hardship at home and perceived threats from their larger neighbour.

Most Latvian parties support Ukraine, but they differ over how that support should fit with domestic needs. The populist Sovereign Power party says it wants Ukraine to win while arguing that money directed towards Kyiv would be better used at home. Polling above 9%, it appears likely to become the second-largest party. Yet most other parties have rejected the prospect of joining it in a governing coalition.

Economic and social concerns may also change how part of the electorate votes. Ethnic Russians account for about a quarter of Latvian citizens. Their ballots have traditionally followed identity-based divisions, but this time their choices appear set to turn on economic and social issues, Al Jazeera reported.

A fragmented path to government

Latvia’s party landscape leaves little room for a straightforward outcome. Parties seldom win more than 20% of the vote, making coalitions the usual way to govern. Fourteen electoral lists are competing this year, but polls suggest only seven will clear the 5% minimum share of votes required to enter parliament.

Latvia First, a pro-Ukraine populist nationalist party polling at about 9%, is a possible partner for Kulbergs. The pro-European, social democratic Progressives are polling at 6%. Once voting closes, the key developments to watch will be which parties cross the parliamentary threshold and whether Kulbergs can assemble a coalition from the resulting field.