Uganda turns to think tanks as tax and borrowing choices face scrutiny

Taxing struggling young businesses too hard can leave Uganda with fewer businesses to tax. That was the warning from economist Fred Muhumuza at a Makerere University conference where the country’s planning chief outlined a Cabinet directive to bring more research into government decisions, according to Daily Monitor Uganda (direct). The stakes extend beyond revenue collection: speakers linked policy choices to jobs, transport costs and access to education.

National Planning Authority (NPA) Board Chairperson Prof. Pamela Mbabazi said Cabinet had instructed the agency to work with universities and think tanks—institutions that research policy problems—to develop solutions supported by evidence. Speaking at the inaugural Yobel Biashara conference on Wednesday, she said President Yoweri Museveni had personally asked the authority to connect policymakers with research bodies and give Cabinet better guidance.

A research gap behind policy mistakes

Mbabazi described a government struggling with ineffective policies because decisions are made too quickly, without enough research or consultation with knowledgeable Ugandans. She singled out strategic mistakes by agencies including the Uganda Revenue Authority (URA), saying they hurt the economy and undermine the national ambition of building a $500 billion economy by 2040. Her argument was that expert advice should shape decisions before they are made, rather than come after mistakes.

“It is only think tanks that can help our politicians to make the right decisions,” Mbabazi said.

She pointed to China as an example of a country that placed think tanks at the centre of policymaking during its economic transformation. Muhumuza, who heads the Makerere University Business School Economic Forum, offered a Ugandan precedent. During the 1990s, he said, the Bank of Uganda and central government regularly sought guidance from the Uganda Economic Association as they navigated privatization—the transfer of state businesses to private ownership—and the opening of markets to greater competition.

Revenue today, fewer jobs tomorrow

Muhumuza challenged URA’s approach to collecting taxes from startups and vulnerable businesses. Pursuing immediate revenue targets too aggressively, he warned, can damage the tax base—the businesses and activity from which government collects money—and hold back job creation. His criticism focused on the tension between raising funds now and preserving the businesses that could support future public revenue.

He also questioned heavy borrowing for infrastructure such as the Jinja Expressway while cheaper water transport options, including the Kisumu–Port Bell route, remain underused. Beyond business and transport, he criticized examination fees for candidate classes. Such charges, he warned, push poorer students out of education and create a social and economic burden over time.

The conference, themed “Africa’s Agency in an Era of Geopolitical Change,” also examined how African countries can respond to shifts in global power. Yobel Biashara Chairman Dr. James Magara said the forum brought together prominent Ugandans to develop locally shaped solutions. He called for African countries to fund key institutions such as the African Union themselves, expand trade through the African Continental Free Trade Area, and invest strategically in young people.

The next test is whether the NPA’s links with researchers translate into the evidence-led guidance Cabinet has requested. The debates over taxes, transport borrowing and education charges show the choices speakers want that work to inform. The report gave no timetable for putting the collaboration into operation.