Ethiopia’s northern war puts its main import lifeline at risk

The roads carrying most of Ethiopia’s imports, including fuel, from Djibouti face a new threat from fighting in the country’s north. According to Al Jazeera, an offensive in the Afar region could endanger those supply routes as federal troops and allied forces advance in neighbouring Tigray. The risk reaches beyond the battlefield: a conflict already killing civilians could also put a vital import corridor under pressure.

Ethiopian troops have regained Alula Aba Nega Airport in Mekelle, Tigray’s capital, sources told Reuters. About 10 kilometres east of the city centre, it was among three regional airfields seized by rebel forces when fighting began on September 23. A resident who confirmed the airport’s recapture also reported gunfire outside central Mekelle. The advance follows more than a week of heavy fighting between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, or TPLF, and its allies.

Inside Mekelle, residents described a retreat accompanied by a growing security vacuum. One told Reuters that some TPLF fighters were abandoning their positions and returning home, while government facilities were being looted. A local journalist told AFP that TPLF fighters and leaders were leaving the city and that government offices and police stations were unguarded. Residents feared that public property and their own lives were at risk.

Supply hubs become a focus

The fighting spans Tigray, Amhara and Afar. Last week, the Tigray Peace Force, a group of Tigrayan fighters aligned with the federal government, said it had captured Alamata. Near Tigray’s southern boundary with Amhara, the town serves as a supply hub for soldiers, fuel and food. Holding it could help federal forces move north towards Mekelle. Al Jazeera’s Ethiopia bureau chief, Mohammed Taha Tawakel, reported on Friday that government-aligned forces had taken several towns and were approaching the regional capital.

Afar presents a wider economic risk because of the import routes from Djibouti. The source report does not establish that those routes have been cut, but identifies them as vulnerable to the offensive. Fighting has also reached North Wollo in Amhara, where Ethiopia’s military said around 270 Tigrayan fighters had been killed and more than 200 wounded. An explosion was reported at the Ministry of Defence in Addis Ababa early on Thursday, suggesting the conflict may be reaching beyond the north.

A broken peace, a regional risk

The renewed war has shattered the fragile peace established by the November 2022 Pretoria Agreement. At least 52 civilians have been killed in northern Ethiopia, according to the report. Doctors Without Borders reported a rise in wounded people last week. Amnesty International said it had received credible reports of damage to civilian sites from shelling and air strikes, increased forced recruitment and other possible violations of international law.

Amnesty International’s regional director Tigere Chagutah urged the African Union’s Peace and Security Council to hold an emergency session rather than wait for mass atrocities or a surge in civilian deaths.

The diplomatic backdrop is also worsening. Eritrea severed ties with Ethiopia on Thursday. Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of supporting armed groups opposed to its government, an allegation Eritrea rejects. The rupture reverses the diplomatic opening of 2018, when the neighbours restored relations after more than two decades of tension.

What comes next will depend partly on whether fighting spreads further into the import corridor and across borders. Laura Hammond, a development studies professor at SOAS University of London, told Al Jazeera that a prolonged conflict could bring deeper Eritrean involvement inside Tigray and aggravate tensions involving Sudan. Control of Mekelle, security along the Djibouti supply routes and the response of regional governments are now central developments to watch.