Republicans’ $888m ad push meets voter anger over the economy

Republicans and their allies are preparing to outspend Democrats on election advertising, but their biggest obstacle may not be money. Just 26% of Americans approve of President Donald Trump’s handling of the economy, according to Associated Press-NORC polling reported by Al Jazeera. With congressional control at stake on November 3, Republicans are directing millions into races once considered safe, while Democrats enter the final month with a stronger outlook.

The economy remains voters’ leading concern. Higher petrol prices, which the report links to the US-Israel war with Iran, feature prominently in their worries. Trump’s overall approval stood at 31% in the latest AP-NORC survey, his lowest reading across either presidential term. His economic approval was two percentage points below former President Joe Biden’s lowest result on that measure. Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the conservative Ethics and Public Policy Center, said voters were frustrated that Trump had not fulfilled the central promises of his re-election campaign.

A spending advantage under pressure

The financial gap is substantial. Republicans and their supporters were scheduled to spend $888m on advertising between mid-September and election day, against $666m for Democrats and their allies, according to AdImpact figures cited by Al Jazeera. In the Senate contests in Ohio, Texas and Michigan, planned pro-Republican advertising exceeded Democratic spending by at least $24m in each state. A CNBC analysis of the parties’ three major committees put Republican cash holdings at $233.4m, compared with $130.4m for Democrats.

Those resources are entering an already expensive campaign. At least $4bn had been spent on advertising for congressional and governor races by September 17, according to Michael Franz, co-director of the Wesleyan Media Project. He said the election could become the costliest midterm on record. Separately, a New York Times analysis estimated that at least $1bn in “dark money”—political spending that conceals donors’ identities—had entered the contests by the end of August. Groups supporting cryptocurrency, artificial intelligence and online betting businesses are expected to be major spenders in key races, with support crossing party lines.

Money can introduce candidates to voters or damage their opponents, New York-based Democratic strategist Trip Yang told Al Jazeera. But he warned that improving Republican candidates’ images might not overcome the president’s unpopularity. Olsen also questioned whether Trump’s planned campaign rallies could reach the voters Republicans most need to convince:

“But the Republican problem is a persuasion problem with people in the middle,” Olsen said.

Congressional control is the prize

Democrats’ prospects have improved in both chambers. The Cook Political Report shifted 15 House races towards the party, including the Texas border seat held by Republican Monica De La Cruz, now classified as a toss-up, meaning neither candidate has a clear advantage. Taking the 435-member House would give Democrats greater legislative leverage over Trump and the ability to launch investigations into his administration. Party leaders have identified his family’s business dealings as a priority for scrutiny.

The Senate offers a narrower route: only 35 of its 100 seats are being contested, and Democrats need a net gain of at least four for a slim majority. Polls have consistently put Democratic candidates ahead in Republican-held seats in North Carolina, Texas, Ohio and Alaska. Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia’s Sabato’s Crystal Ball said the Senate had become increasingly competitive, while cautioning that polling quality varies and that the Midwest has been especially difficult to measure.

The final stretch will test whether Republican advertising can change minds rather than simply mobilise loyal supporters. Trump has pledged between $400m and $500m from his MAGA Inc political fundraising vehicle and plans an intensive rally schedule. Watch the closely fought Senate races and whether the spending advantage can overcome voters’ dissatisfaction with the economy.