Suspected drone strikes reach Addis Ababa as Ethiopia’s regional ties rupture

Commercial drones adapted to carry explosives may have brought Ethiopia’s renewed conflict into its capital. Explosions were reported at military sites in Addis Ababa overnight Wednesday into Thursday, according to The Africa Report. A diplomatic source told AFP that drone strikes were the most likely explanation, but said there was no imagery or independent confirmation. The suspected attacks mark a possible turning point in fighting that has already fractured relations with neighbouring Eritrea.

Residents and workers near the army headquarters in Addis Ababa’s Tor Hayloch area also reported the strikes to AFP. The Ministry of Defence, which houses the Ethiopian National Defence Force headquarters, was among the reported locations. The diplomatic source said an army base was hit around the same time. Neither the government nor the military has commented on the reported strikes, leaving their cause and scope uncertain.

A northern conflict reaches further

The fighting began last week when the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, or TPLF, attacked federal forces in northern Ethiopia. That renewed fears of a return to the destructive civil war of 2020–2022. Although the military has a much larger drone fleet, rebel forces have used drones against airbases and airports elsewhere in Ethiopia. Conflict monitor ACLED recorded three such attacks last Sunday in Oromia and Amhara states.

The diplomatic source said the devices suspected in the capital were likely first-person-view drones, commercial aircraft fitted with explosive charges. The Critical Threats Project, part of the American Enterprise Institute think tank, said Friday that rebels were conducting a drone campaign across Ethiopia, including Addis Ababa. It assessed the attacks as an effort to show that the fighting could spread beyond the northern battlefield.

On that battlefield, reports suggested the rebels had lost ground on Thursday. A humanitarian source told AFP that the TPLF had been driven out of Erebti in Afar, which it had captured earlier in the week, and was fighting near the mountainous Afar–Tigray border. A pro-government militia separately claimed on X to have recovered Erebti and Maychew in southern Tigray. Those accounts are difficult to verify: journalists cannot travel to affected areas, and communications are badly disrupted.

Diplomatic channels close

The military confrontation is now entangled with a regional diplomatic rupture. Ethiopia, which accuses Eritrea of backing the TPLF, expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats and closed its embassy in Asmara on Thursday. Eritrea announced it would cut all diplomatic ties. Ethiopia also expelled an Egyptian diplomat without giving a reason, and Cairo responded in kind. Ethiopia and Egypt were already divided over Addis Ababa’s new Nile mega-dam, while Egypt has strengthened relations with Eritrea in recent months.

Access to the Red Sea adds another source of tension. Eritrea has long feared that landlocked Ethiopia intends to invade and take access to its coast. In a video released late Thursday, TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael framed the fighting in regional terms:

“The war is regional and it is a war to control the Red Sea.” — Debretsion Gebremichael

Oxford Economics senior political analyst Jervin Naidoo described the diplomatic deterioration as the most serious possible short of direct military conflict. He warned that closed communication channels and deep mistrust raise the danger of miscalculation. The African Union urged restraint amid tensions between Ethiopia, Eritrea and Egypt. The immediate points to watch are confirmation of the suspected capital strikes, the disputed battlefield reports and whether regional governments can prevent the fighting from widening.