Bolsonaro’s polling upset raises the stakes for Brazil’s October 25 run-off

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva expected to win Brazil’s presidency outright. Instead, the incumbent finished behind Flavio Bolsonaro, whose stronger-than-forecast showing has put the country’s right-wing movement within reach of returning to power. According to Al Jazeera, the two will face a run-off on October 25, extending a polarised contest as Brazilians worry about crime and the cost of living.

Brazil’s electoral court confirmed the second round on Sunday after neither candidate secured the majority required to win. With nearly 99% of votes reported, Bolsonaro had about 47% of valid votes, or 55.8 million, against Lula’s 44.9%, or almost 53.2 million. Most polls had anticipated another round, but had placed Lula first. The reversal leaves the president facing a challenger who has already exceeded expectations.

The contest pits Lula, 80, seeking a fourth non-consecutive term, against a 45-year-old senator carrying his family’s political banner. Flavio is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, whom Lula narrowly defeated in 2022. The former president is barred from running and is serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup after that defeat. His movement, however, remains a formidable electoral force.

An early surge with a possible limit

Bolsonaro said the results demonstrated a public desire for change. Lula acknowledged that the outcome was unexpected, while promising a stronger performance in the next round. Polling before Sunday’s vote suggested the two were roughly level in a potential run-off. That makes supporters of the other 10 first-round candidates an important prize over the remaining three weeks. Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos, who together drew about 5.3 million votes, had previously said they would endorse neither contender.

Analysts speaking to Reuters offered one explanation for Bolsonaro’s surprise lead: some voters who preferred other candidates may have backed him early because defeating Lula mattered more. Such voters had been expected to move towards Bolsonaro only in the second round. Political analyst Rafael Favetti said that could help explain the first-round strength while leaving less room to expand his support next time.

“The protest vote foreshadows what is to come in the run-off,” political analyst Rafael Favetti told Reuters.

Congress adds another test

The presidential result was accompanied by wider gains for the right. Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party was on course to become the largest force in the Chamber of Deputies and was gaining ground in the Senate. Former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro won a Senate seat representing the Federal District, her first elected position. Flavio’s brother Carlos also won a Senate seat, in Santa Catarina. Andre Pagliarini of Louisiana State University told Al Jazeera that the legislative results suggested deeper public support for the Bolsonaro movement than many had expected.

For Latin America’s largest economy, the outcome will determine both who leads and how easily that leader can govern. Congress was already dominated by conservatives; a stronger right could further constrain Lula’s agenda or give Bolsonaro more room to pursue his priorities, including seeking an amnesty for his father. Against concerns over living costs and increasingly tense relations with the United States, the next test is whether Bolsonaro can build on his lead—or Lula can bring enough voters back before October 25.