Gulf Oil Flows Recover, but a Fuel Squeeze Keeps WTI Near $93

More crude oil is getting out of the Gulf, but buyers still face a shortage of the fuels they actually use. That split kept oil prices from holding their losses this week, according to OilPrice (direct). Saudi export routes reopened and regional shipments recovered, yet diesel, gasoline and jet-fuel supplies remained constrained. Reports of another U.S. carrier strike group heading to the Middle East added a fresh reason for traders to price in the risk of disruption.

At 2323 GMT Thursday, November West Texas Intermediate crude futures—contracts for delivery in that month—were at $93 a barrel, up 56 cents, or 0.61%, for the week. Prices had swung between $88.58 and $96.54. The wide range reflected competing pressures: more available crude gave sellers confidence, while tight fuel supplies and the possibility of a wider conflict brought buyers back.

More barrels, but fragile routes

Saudi Arabia restarted its East-West Pipeline and resumed tanker loading at Yanbu, restoring an outlet through the Red Sea that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs estimated Gulf oil exports, including shipments it classified as dark exports, had recovered to 23.3 million barrels a day over the prior week, close to the 2025 average. JPMorgan’s longer, 10-day measure was weaker at about 20.5 million barrels a day, or 89% of normal. The different measures suggest improvement, but not a settled return to normal trade.

Producers have kept cargoes moving through ship-to-ship transfers off Oman, military escorts and revised loading plans. Those workarounds take more time and cost more, while leaving shipments exposed to another attack. Maritime security agencies reported that at least three tankers were struck while attempting to pass through Hormuz this week. OPEC is expected to keep November production targets unchanged at its Sunday meeting, leaving the reliability of export routes as a central question for supply.

The shortage is in finished fuel

The U.S. inventory figures showed why recovering crude flows have not resolved the market’s problem. Commercial crude stocks increased by 922,000 barrels to 427.3 million, against expectations for a decline. But distillate stocks, which include diesel, fell by 2.3 million barrels to 105.2 million. Gasoline inventories dropped by 1.7 million barrels to 204.4 million. Refiners were already operating at high rates: U.S. capacity use averaged 96.3% in the third quarter, compared with 94.7% a year earlier, limiting room to lift output further.

OilPrice’s assessment: recovering crude exports have eased supply pressure, but have not solved the shortage of finished fuel.

Russia restricted diesel exports through October after attacks damaged refinery infrastructure. Middle Eastern fuel shipments also remained well below their pre-war pace. China added another constraint on Thursday, with refiners reportedly suspending oil-product exports beyond Hong Kong and Macau until further notice. Together, those restrictions leave buyers competing for fewer cargoes while freight costs and difficult shipping routes complicate deliveries.

Washington has urged the European Union to consider releasing emergency diesel stocks. The White House has also weighed wider use of red-dyed diesel rather than a diesel export ban. Separately, The Wall Street Journal reported that the United States was sending a third carrier strike group to the Middle East, with Marine Corps ships and up to 10,000 additional troops expected to follow. OilPrice said the report revived market concern about a wider confrontation with Iran.

The next tests are Sunday’s OPEC meeting, the durability of the Gulf export recovery and any further disruption to refineries or shipping. Emergency diesel releases could ease immediate pressure, but would not repair damaged plants or restore normal trade routes. For oil traders, the balance remains unsettled: more crude is reaching the market, while the fuel shortage and military risk remain unresolved.