Opec+ holds November targets as war keeps oil output below plan

Most Opec+ members are pumping less oil than their targets allow because of the war, yet the group is leaving its November production plan unchanged. The decision comes with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and Brent crude above $100 a barrel, putting the gap between planned supply and actual production at the centre of the market story.

According to The National — Business, seven core members agreed at a Sunday meeting to carry September 2026 production requirements into November 2026. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Algeria, Russia and Kazakhstan took part in the decision. It extends a pause that began in October, following six months of gradual production increases. The latest decision concerns output targets, rather than a reported change in the amount of oil actually being pumped.

A pause after six months of increases

The group completed the reversal of 1.65 million barrels per day of voluntary production cuts in September. Those cuts dated from 2023. Their removal marked the end of that phase of restoring supply, before the producers moved to hold their targets steady in October and now November. The Sunday decision leaves the September requirements as the reference point for another month.

A separate layer of restraint remains in place. Opec+ is retaining another two million barrels per day of cuts, agreed in 2022, through the end of the year. These are distinct from the voluntary reductions that were fully unwound in September. Alongside its immediate output decisions, the group is reviewing members’ production capacity to help set quotas — the production levels assigned to individual countries — for 2027.

The producers said market conditions would remain under regular review, with meetings continuing every month. That schedule gives the group another occasion to assess the market after extending the pause, while the capacity review addresses how future production allowances will be set.

The seven countries “will continue to hold monthly meetings to review market conditions”, the group said in its statement, according to The National — Business.

Hormuz remains the bottleneck

The war is limiting what many producers can deliver. The Strait of Hormuz, which carried about a fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas — gas cooled into liquid form — has been effectively shut since fighting between the US and Iran began on February 28. Most members are producing below their targets because of the war, The National — Business reported.

Oil prices ended Friday with different daily moves. Brent, the benchmark used for about two thirds of the world’s oil, settled nearly unchanged at $102.25 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate, the benchmark for US crude, fell 1.9% to $91.11 a barrel. Both finished below their levels at the previous week’s close: Brent lost nearly 2%, while WTI declined 1.4%.

Prices had reached an intraday high of $126 a barrel in late April. The next scheduled Opec+ meeting is November 1, when the producers will again review market conditions. That meeting, alongside the continuing review of capacity for 2027 quotas, is the next point to watch as unchanged targets sit alongside war-constrained production.