Dubai’s month-long gold slide puts 14K below Dh300 a gram

Gold priced below Dh300 a gram is back in focus in Dubai, where the 14K variety opened the week at Dh295.5. The local market has lost Dh35.75 over one month, according to Khaleej Times. Prices were broadly steady at the start of the week, but the monthly decline provides the backdrop as investors weigh a strong US dollar against softer economic signals.

The 24K variety stood at Dh498 per gram at Monday’s market opening, compared with Dh499 over the weekend, the newspaper reported, citing Dubai Jewellery Group data. The other quoted prices were Dh461 for 22K, Dh442 for 21K and Dh379 for 18K. The K designation refers to gold purity. Those figures put 14K below the Dh300 threshold, while the highest-purity variety remained just under Dh500.

A firm dollar meets softer economic data

International prices were also slightly lower. Spot gold, the price for immediate delivery, slipped 0.18% to $4,132.2 an ounce. Silver moved in the opposite direction, gaining 0.84% to $60.92. The modest decline in global gold accompanied Dubai’s subdued opening, with the local 24K price only Dh1 below its weekend level despite the much larger loss recorded over the month.

The dollar’s strength weighed on gold, Khaleej Times reported, drawing on Reuters coverage. Yet the decline was limited by recent weak economic data, which had sharply reduced expectations of a US Federal Reserve interest-rate increase that month. The market was therefore facing competing signals: pressure from a firm dollar, alongside a shift in expectations over the US central bank’s next decision.

Vijay Valecha, financial analyst and chief investment officer at Century Financial, said the previous week that investors had reduced the probability they assigned to an October rate increase to nearly 50%, from earlier estimates of 70%. He linked that reassessment to comments by John Williams, president and chief executive of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, suggesting that one further rate adjustment might be enough later in the year.

Bond yields remain a hurdle

Valecha also identified rising US Treasury yields—the returns on US government debt—as a risk to a gold recovery. The 30-year Treasury yield had moved above 5.61%, reaching its highest level since 2002. That put the bond market alongside the dollar and interest-rate expectations among the factors he highlighted for gold’s next move.

Valecha’s assessment: rising US Treasury yields pose a risk to gold’s recovery.

For the near term, Valecha said gold could revisit support around $4,120 an ounce before advancing further. Support is a price area watched for buying interest that might slow a decline; the level was his market assessment, not a confirmed turning point. He identified two forthcoming US releases to watch: the core personal consumption expenditures price index, an inflation measure, and the non-farm payrolls report, which tracks employment. Those data, he said, would help determine gold’s next direction.