Hormuz Oil Flows Reportedly Top Pre-War Levels, but Brent Holds Above $100

Oil shipments out of the Strait of Hormuz have reportedly climbed above pre-war levels, even as attacks on tankers and Saudi energy infrastructure continue to cloud the picture. Yet the reported recovery has not pushed Brent below $100 a barrel. According to OilPrice (direct), crude prices eased in early trading after the latest flow figures emerged, but both major oil benchmarks remained above their Friday levels.

Brent, an international reference price for crude, stood at $101.20 a barrel at the time of the report. West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, traded at $89.73. The contrast matters: an early trading decline was not the same as a fall from Friday. OilPrice interpreted that price pattern as a sign that at least some traders were waiting for firmer evidence that shipments were improving.

A sharp rebound in provisional figures

The shipment estimates came from Kpler, with Reuters describing the figures as provisional—meaning they were not yet final. Oil flows out of Hormuz ranged from 19.5 million to 22.5 million barrels a day between September 27 and September 29. That was roughly twice the daily volume recorded a month earlier, according to the report. The figures indicated flows above pre-war levels despite reports of substantial disruption to Saudi energy infrastructure.

OilPrice, citing provisional Kpler data, reported that oil flows out of Hormuz had exceeded pre-war levels.

The latest estimates followed another Kpler assessment the previous week that tanker traffic through the strait was approaching pre-war levels. That earlier report also came against a backdrop of Houthi attacks on Saudi energy facilities and Iranian attacks on tankers in Hormuz. Together, the two assessments presented a picture of recovering traffic and oil volumes despite the reported attacks.

But the new figures also sat uneasily alongside earlier reports. For weeks, reports citing Kpler had said daily flows through Hormuz remained below their ten-day moving average, a measure that smooths daily changes across that period. OilPrice said the contrast had stirred doubts among some energy-market commentators. Reports of Iranian attacks on tankers reinforced those doubts, although some commentators dismissed the attacks as a factor in prices.

Gas shipments raise a separate question

Kpler's provisional figures also put liquefied natural gas, or LNG—gas chilled into liquid form for shipping—flows out of Hormuz at pre-war levels. OilPrice questioned how that finding fitted with QatarEnergy's continuing force majeure on exports. Force majeure is a contractual provision invoked when extraordinary events prevent obligations from being met. The export status added another point of tension to the reported recovery in shipments.

Reports cited by OilPrice said QatarEnergy was looking to buy LNG cargoes to fulfil some of its long-term contracts. Such purchases could help it serve those commitments, but they did not settle the question of recovered export volumes. OilPrice argued that a return to pre-war flows from the world's third-largest LNG exporter was unlikely while force majeure remained in place, even with emergency purchases.

The next test is whether firmer shipment evidence supports the provisional rebound. For oil, the issue is how the higher reported volumes fit with continuing reports of disruption. For LNG, it is how pre-war flow estimates square with QatarEnergy's export constraints. Brent's position above $100 leaves that gap between the shipment data and the wider supply picture in focus.