Mekelle changes hands as renewed war threatens Tigray’s livelihoods

For Berihu, a 32-year-old three-wheeled taxi driver in northwestern Tigray, the battle for Mekelle brings back memories of bombed villages and civilians trapped by war. Speaking to Al Jazeera from Shire, he described his distress at seeing fighting return to a region where the previous conflict destroyed livelihoods and displaced millions. Ethiopian federal forces and their allies have now taken the regional capital, raising fears that another long crisis is beginning.

The Tigray People’s Liberation Front, or TPLF, said on Saturday that it had left Mekelle and would move its regional administration elsewhere. Federal troops and allied Tigray Peace Force fighters entered the city that day, according to Al Jazeera. A pro-government militia source, a humanitarian worker and a resident separately told Reuters on Sunday that government-aligned forces controlled the city. Resident Goitom said they had secured key sites, including the airport.

A peace deal under renewed strain

The takeover comes less than four years after the November 2022 Pretoria agreement ended the large-scale fighting between the federal government and the TPLF. Estimates put the death toll from the 2020–22 war in the hundreds of thousands. Millions were displaced, while infrastructure and livelihoods suffered extensive damage. The African Union-backed settlement left major disputes unresolved, including control of contested territories, the return of displaced people and the disarmament of Tigrayan forces.

In July, the TPLF declared that the agreement had effectively broken down, accusing the federal government of failing to fulfil central commitments. The government disputed that account and said it remained committed to peace, while blaming the TPLF for weakening the settlement. Reports of clashes and drone strikes accompanied the political deterioration. Each side accused the other of preparing for renewed fighting.

The anxiety now reaches beyond Tigray. Abel, a 30-year-old shopkeeper in Addis Ababa, told Al Jazeera that reports of explosions in his own city had made the conflict feel much closer. Diplomatic sources said blasts were heard in several areas, including near the military headquarters. Reuters reported that a source linked to an opposition alliance claimed responsibility for drone attacks on military facilities and other targets. That claim was not independently verified. Abel feared the economic consequences for ordinary households if the war expanded.

“If the war becomes bigger, ordinary people will suffer,” Abel told Al Jazeera.

A wider conflict, an uncertain administration

The fighting involves more groups than the earlier Tigray war. The TPLF belongs to a broader opposition alliance that includes armed movements from several parts of Ethiopia, and fighting has spread into Afar. Relations with Eritrea have also deteriorated. Ethiopia accused Eritrea of backing anti-government forces and interfering in its affairs; Eritrea denied those allegations. On Thursday, Ethiopia announced the closure of its embassy in Asmara and declared 10 Eritrean diplomats unwelcome, citing security concerns. Eritrea subsequently severed diplomatic relations.

Inside Mekelle, Goitom described an unsettled transition. After TPLF forces withdrew, he said, a gap in security allowed theft in some areas, including government offices. The group has presented its departure as a move to spare the city further destruction, not a surrender. It said its forces would fight from other positions, leaving residents uncertain whether the change in control would bring any lasting respite.

Abraham Belay, the former head of Tigray’s interim administration, told Fana Broadcasting Corporate on Sunday that preparations were under way for a new administration, with regional elections envisaged within months. The next test is whether those structures can take shape while the TPLF continues its campaign—and whether the fighting spreads further. For residents whose homes and incomes were damaged by the last war, the immediate concern is another round of displacement and destruction.