Middle East oil exports beat pre-war levels as Hormuz threats persist

Middle East crude exports climbed above pre-war levels on four days in late September, even as Iran reported attacks on ships near the Strait of Hormuz and threatened to keep the waterway closed. The figures put the region’s oil trade and its continuing security risks side by side: strong shipment totals have not brought an end to the confrontation over the route.

According to a Reuters report published by Al Jazeera, provisional figures from ship-tracking company Kpler put regional crude exports at 19.5 million to 22.5 million barrels a day on September 24 and September 27–29. Before the US-Israel war on Iran, exports had averaged 18 million barrels a day between March 2025 and February 2026. The late-September readings exceeded that benchmark on four of the week’s seven days.

Strong exports, different measures

The rise was also visible in a measure that smooths out daily changes. On October 1, the seven-day moving average for crude exports stood at 18.5 million barrels a day. That regional count covers more than passage through Hormuz: it includes Red Sea movements, shipments from terminals and oil transferred between ships in the Gulf of Oman.

A broader Kpler tally, combining crude with oil products, chemicals and non-gas liquids, averaged 22.4 million barrels a day in the seven days through September 30. Separately, September saw the largest monthly number of liquefied natural gas cargoes leaving Hormuz since February. These are distinct measures: the broader liquids total and the gas cargo count are not the same as crude exports alone.

The tracking figures also have a limitation. They leave out vessels that may have crossed the strait with their automatic identification systems switched off to avoid detection. Those systems transmit a ship’s identity and position. Kpler’s figures are provisional, and the reported totals do not establish how much untracked traffic might have passed through.

Iran disputes the scale of passage

Senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Ali Fadavi offered a different account in a televised interview on Sunday night. He said only three million to four million barrels a day were moving through the US-supervised route, rather than the wider set of export channels included in Kpler’s regional figures.

Fadavi described the oil moving through the route as “negligible” compared with pre-war traffic.

Fadavi also claimed no US vessels remained in the Gulf, Hormuz, the Sea of Oman or the northern Indian Ocean, and said US warships were completely vulnerable to IRGC attacks. Around the late-September export surge, Iran said strikes on ships, including US Navy vessels, had pushed American warships farther from its coast.

Security and reopening talks remain the next developments to watch. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency reported at least one attack daily in Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden from October 2. On Sunday, Iran’s parliament speaker and top negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said Hormuz would stay closed until Washington accepted Tehran’s seven-day plan to reopen it.