Opec+ targets stand still as Gulf oil exports struggle to recover

The seven core Opec+ producers pumped roughly 5 million fewer barrels of oil a day in August than before the war in February, despite months of increases in their production targets. That gap between planned and actual supply is the backdrop to Sunday’s meeting, where the group is expected to leave November targets unchanged, according to Khaleej Times.

Three sources close to the discussions said an agreement in principle had been reached to hold those targets steady. Opec+ brings together the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia. Its production targets set the volumes members are expected to pump, but the figures do not necessarily match the amount of oil they can produce and move to market.

Higher targets, constrained supply

For Gulf producers, the main constraint remains export disruption linked to the US-Israeli war on Iran. Their exports have fluctuated between 60% and 80% of normal levels in recent months, leaving production well below targets. The disruptions mean that a decision about planned output alone does not capture the condition of supply: producers have been unable to translate much of the group’s agreed increases into additional barrels.

Opec+ has raised production targets for much of 2026, following years of cuts. Yet most of those increases have remained on paper because of the Middle East conflict, the report said. The seven core members produced 25 million barrels per day in August, according to Opec data cited in the report. That was 630,000 barrels per day more than in July, but still roughly 5 million barrels per day short of February’s prewar level.

The figures show both a monthly increase and the scale of the remaining shortfall. August production rose from July without coming close to restoring prewar output. For members preparing to meet on Sunday, the November target decision therefore sits alongside a separate challenge: the continuing disruption to exports that has kept Gulf output below the levels already agreed.

A delayed test for 2027 quotas

The war has also complicated a review of production capacity — the amount of oil members could potentially produce. That assessment is crucial to setting their 2027 quotas, or individual production allocations. Industry sources cited by Khaleej Times said the conflict had delayed the review by making estimates of future production potential uncertain. The difficulty is not only deciding how much output to allow, but establishing the capacity on which those decisions should rest.

Sources cited by Khaleej Times said changes to output were unlikely before 2027.

Opec+ still has about 2 million barrels per day of production cuts in place across most members. It needs the capacity review to determine how increases should be distributed. The delayed assessment therefore leaves an important part of the group’s future production arrangements unresolved, even as members move towards keeping November targets steady.

Sunday’s meeting brings together Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman, the seven core members. The immediate issue to watch is whether they confirm the expected November hold. Beyond that, attention turns to the capacity review needed for 2027 allocations and the export disruptions that continue to separate production targets from actual supply.