Fitch sees Ras Al Khaimah growing in 2026 as $5.1bn resort faces six-month delay

A six-month delay has pushed back the opening of Ras Al Khaimah’s $5.1 billion Wynn Al Marjan gaming resort, but construction has continued despite the regional war. The setback has not stopped Fitch Ratings from sharply improving its economic forecast for the emirate. According to Khaleej Times, the agency now expects growth in 2026 rather than the contraction it predicted in April.

Fitch forecasts a 1.5% increase in gross domestic product, the measure of an economy’s output, this year. That replaces its April forecast for a 1.8% decline. The agency based the change on first-half 2026 data showing that the economy had held up better than expected. Firm domestic demand and stronger activity within the Gulf helped support that resilience, even as the conflict disrupted plans for a major investment.

Growth improves, but the warning remains

The agency said Ras Al Khaimah’s direct exposure to war-related risks had eased since April 2026. It described the conflict’s impact on a potentially transformative investment as a relatively limited delay to its planned opening, alongside higher costs. The Wynn Al Marjan project remains under construction. Its scale makes the delay a prominent challenge within an emirate pursuing several large development plans, rather than a halt to the resort’s delivery.

Fitch affirmed Ras Al Khaimah’s long-term issuer default rating at A+, an assessment of its ability to meet financial obligations. The grade signals low default risk, though economic and business conditions can still affect creditworthiness. The outlook remains negative, reflecting uncertainty across the region. An outlook indicates the possible direction of a future rating change; it is not itself a downgrade. The improved growth forecast therefore sits alongside a continuing warning about regional conditions.

Fitch’s A+ assessment rests on low public-sector debt, sizeable fiscal buffers, high income per person and the advantages of UAE federation membership, according to Khaleej Times.

Those financial strengths help explain why the rating has held steady despite the uncertainty. Fitch expects consolidated public-sector debt to stay broadly stable at about 11% of GDP over the next two years. It also forecasts growth accelerating to 5% in 2027. Together, those projections describe an economy expected to gain momentum without a substantial rise in its public debt burden relative to output.

A development pipeline still moving

The resort is part of a wider development programme. Projects underway include Marjan’s RAK Central and Mina Al Arab, a $2.72 billion coastal masterplan. Al Marjan Island, an artificial archipelago, is planned to accommodate high-end homes, hotels and the region’s first integrated gaming resort. These developments provide the backdrop to Fitch’s assessment of an economy whose investment plans have continued through the conflict.

A Ras Al Khaimah government spokesperson welcomed the rating affirmation, the removal from Rating Watch Negative and the stronger 2026 forecast as signs of confidence in the economy. The spokesperson credited stability and strategic planning, while stressing resilience to regional and global challenges. The next milestones to watch are progress toward the resort’s delayed opening and the growth rebound Fitch forecasts for 2027, with regional uncertainty still weighing on the rating outlook.