Guyana’s oil boom offers refiners a route around Middle East disruption

Guyana began producing oil only in 2019. Now it is aiming for 1.7 million barrels a day by 2030, while its economy is forecast to grow faster than any other this year. The transformation is lifting thousands out of poverty, according to The National — Business. It is also giving overseas buyers something increasingly valuable: a growing source of crude that does not need to pass through the Middle East’s troubled shipping routes.

The country, which is outside the Opec group of oil-producing nations, is expected to reach output of 1 million barrels a day soon, the report said. Its rise comes as Middle Eastern supply disruptions and Europe’s effort to reduce dependence on Russian oil reshape trade. For refiners — companies that turn crude into fuels — Guyana offers both an alternative supply route and oil suited to making diesel and jet fuel.

Europe leads the buying

Europe received as much as 57 per cent of Guyana’s crude exports between March and August, according to Kpler data cited by The National. Buyers included the Netherlands, Sweden, Germany, the UK, Italy, Poland and Spain. The Americas took about a third. China, Thailand, Singapore and Indonesia were among Asian buyers accounting for about 6 per cent, while Turkey purchased roughly 5 per cent.

Stephanie Rivera, a research analyst at S&P Global Energy, told The National that Guyana’s light-to-medium crude, which contains little sulfur, is becoming more important as Middle Eastern flows are disrupted. Its appeal also rests on strong yields of diesel and jet fuel and break-even costs — the oil price needed to cover costs — of $30–$40 a barrel.

Guyana’s crude is becoming strategically more important to global markets as Middle Eastern supplies face disruption, according to S&P Global Energy analyst Stephanie Rivera.

The supply challenge is substantial. The National reported that 10 million barrels a day of Gulf production remained shut in August, citing the International Energy Agency. The Strait of Hormuz, which previously carried more than 20 per cent of global crude and liquefied natural gas supplies, has been restricted since the Middle East war began. Europe’s search for alternatives to Russian crude adds another source of demand for Guyanese oil.

Offshore projects drive the next phase

An ExxonMobil-led consortium that includes Chevron and China’s CNOOC dominates production. Investment in the offshore Stabroek block is estimated at $55 billion–$60 billion. The group produced its billionth barrel there less than seven years after operations began in 2019. ExxonMobil puts the block’s resource base at just under 11 billion oil-equivalent barrels, a measure combining oil and gas, and plans up to eight offshore developments by 2030.

The economic gains have been dramatic. IMF figures cited in the report show growth of 43.8 per cent in 2024 and 19.3 per cent in 2025, with 16.2 per cent projected this year. The IMF also expects the non-oil economy to grow by about 7 per cent annually on average over the next five years as the government pursues infrastructure and development plans.

The next milestones are offshore. ExxonMobil expects Uaru to start by the end of 2026, followed by Whiptail in 2027 and Hammerhead in 2029. Those projects will mark the next stages of Guyana’s push towards its 2030 production target — and its expanding role in supplying buyers seeking more diverse sources of oil.